Published Research

Investigation findings from the Vernal.earth platform. All results include methodology, sample sizes, and statistical rigor indicators.

Novel Finding

CWD and Copper Deficiency — 21-State Analysis

Soil copper is lower in Chronic Wasting Disease-positive counties in 15 of 21 US states (71%). Five environmental archetypes identified: mining district, agricultural plains, captive trade, industrial/combustion, and saturated/spread-dominated.

n = 21 states USGS DS-801 soil data 4,813 sample sites

Wisconsin CWD and Mining District

Metabolic Vulnerability Index predicts CWD prevalence after controlling for epidemic distance. Mining district counties score -2.37 on MVI vs +0.95 for non-mining counties.

r = -0.511 p < 0.001 Wisconsin only

Pennsylvania CWD and Coal Plants

Wind-direction-adjusted proximity to coal-fired power plants predicts CWD-positive counties.

AUC = 0.855 PA only Logistic classification

Null Finding

Dutch Elm Disease — Environmental Variables

82% of environmental variables showed no significant effect on DED mortality. Humidity (r = +0.203) and tree diameter are the main factors. Demonstrates the platform can distinguish diseases with environmental drivers from those without.

82% null Humidity r = 0.203 Methodological validation

Null Finding

Soil Mineral Balance and Human Mortality

After controlling for income, age, poverty, and geography, soil minerals do not significantly predict county-level all-cause mortality nationally. Exception: Appalachian signal (r = -0.113, p = 0.026). Modern food distribution breaks the soil-to-human pathway.

r = -0.016, p = 0.38 (national) n = 2,816 counties Confirms wildlife-first approach

All findings are ecological (county-level) associations, not individual-level causation. Null findings are reported alongside positive results. Data from USGS, EPA, CDC, and Census.